Shortages of natural resources – food and water

Shortages of natural resources (food, water): Shortages of food or water for human, industrial or ecosystem use. Manifesting as food and water insecurity at local, regional or global levels due to human overexploitation and mismanagement of critical natural resources, climate change (including drought, desertification) and/or lack of adequate infrastructure. The question in this article is what risks these shortages of food and water pose. To that end, I look at this phenomenon from the STEEPLD viewpoints. (Social, Technical, Economic, Environment, Political, Legal, Demographic)

In this contribution, I express my own opinion, not that of any organization.   The 2024 Global Risk Report – WEF provides these definitions

What the WEF says about “natural resource shortages”

“Limits to climate adaptation” (free from the 2024 Global Risk Report – WEF document)

Climate tipping points could lead to a socio-ecological crisis, increasing current risks. Respondents foresee a highly related cluster of environmental risks, with bilateral links to critical changes in Earth systems. This includes biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, extreme weather events and pollution, with a high potential to lead to natural resource shortages. In addition to environmental impacts, several respondents also point to potential socioeconomic implications, including involuntary migration, chronic health problems, infectious diseases and economic downturns. As examined in last year’s Global Risks Report, this nexus of socio-ecological risks has the potential to accelerate climate change, through the release of emissions, and amplify associated impacts, threatening climate-vulnerable populations.

What does STEEPLD ‘say’ about “shortages of food and water”?

Social risks of food and water shortages:

Increase in poverty and hunger, migration and conflict.

This occurs through higher prices for food and water due to scarcity, loss of income due to crop failures, disruption of local and international markets leads to price fluctuations and unpredictability. Cascading effects in this are malnutrition, leading to a weakened immune system and increased mortality. This also occurs through health problems due to lack of clean water and sanitation which increases the risk of disease. In addition, social unrest and conflict between communities and countries competing for it occurs in various places. All this causes people to seek better living conditions. This puts pressure on already overburdened migration systems.

Migration in this context is also a flight from insecurity and violence and from the impact of climate change through drought, floods and hurricanes. Important effects that come with this are xenophobia and discrimination in destination countries. This in turn presents challenges for integration, not only through language barriers but also access to education, health care and unemployment.

Unfair distribution of the impact of resource shortages correlates strongly with regions with existing social inequalities. Governments may face increased demand for aid and social tension and unrest ensues. This weighs on the resilience of governments.

From this, conflict can arise through competition between individuals, communities and even countries. Certain groups are excluded from access to resources leading to feelings of injustice, anger and frustration. Social cohesion breaks down. In it, violent groups, extremism and terrorism thrive. This leads to new migration which creates a vicious cycle of poverty, hunger and conflict.

Health risks

These give increased infant mortality and weakened public health. This is due to malnutrition which can damage the immune system. But the situation can also lead to stress, anxiety, depression and other psychosocial problems, which are pernicious to well-being. Consequences include an increase in mortality rates, an increased burden of disease and a long-term impact on health which affects children’s developmental and learning abilities.

Women and girls are more severely affected.

Women and girls care for water which takes a lot of time and energy. This can lead to less access to education and economic opportunities, and more insecure situations. They often have the most important role in agriculture and food production, especially in small-scale farming. Shortages of water and other resources consequently harm their families. The result is often school absenteeism which reduces their chances for later advancement.

Shortage of food and water further leads to emotions within their families. Relationships can strengthen or weaken. The latter can increase violence against women and girls. This represents a loss of human social (and economic) capital for community development.

Loss of biodiversity.

Shortages of water and food lead to biodiversity loss. This destroys many ecosystem services that are essential for societal functioning. I elaborate on this further below.

Technical risks of food and water shortages:

Supply chain disruption:

Scarcity of water and suitable agricultural land reduces yields and creates disruption in food supply chains. This leads to food shortages among the population.

This leads to price increases, making it more difficult for consumers (and for company restaurants) to purchase food. Logistical challenges also arise, such as delays in transportation and distribution. This can lead to food waste. As a result, trade disruptions can occur as countries close their borders or introduce export restrictions to protect themselves. This can again lead to disruptions in supply chains.

Shortage of technology:

To increase food production with less water, we need innovation in agriculture, such as more efficient digital agronomy, climate resilient crops, crops for on saline soils and vertical farming. Developing this on a large scale is a huge technological challenge. It also sometimes poses ethical dilemmas (with GMOs) and unintended ecological consequences. In addition, the difficulty for its application in developing countries. This along due to high initial investment costs and energy intensity of this technology.

Difficulties with water management technologies:

Seawater desalination provides fresh water in water-scarce areas. However, large-scale application of desalination is difficult due to cost, energy required and discharge of brine into the environment. In addition, water treatment technologies can help reuse contaminated water for irrigation or as tap water. Again, this provides high investment and operational costs which hinders application in developing countries.

Finally, people can use water more sparingly. However, the need for behavioral change makes this difficult.

Vulnerability of technological dependence:

These include disruptions caused by cyber-attacks, natural disasters or shortages of parts or raw materials.

The availability of technology for water and food management is unevenly distributed between more and less vulnerable communities.

Dependence on import technology:

Dependence on import technologies for processing, storage and distribution of imported food and water. This can lead to technical dependence and economic vulnerability.

Imports of processed food are often made by countries with limited local processing capacity. They are more vulnerable to spoilage and waste.

Countries that import food and water depend on import infrastructure, such as seaports, airports, railroads, inland waterways and roads. Such vulnerabilities can cause delays in the delivery of food and water.

Aging water infrastructure:

A number of European countries have aging water infrastructure. It is inefficient by today’s standards and prone to malfunction. This leads to wastage such as through leaks, pipe breaks and contamination, and increased vulnerability to drought.

The cause of water shortages, namely extreme weather events, damages water infrastructure such as dams, pipelines and water treatment plants. Water shortages also endanger industries that rely heavily on water, such as for agriculture and energy production.

Economic-financial risks of food and water shortages:

Price hikes-unemployment-unrests:

Scarcity of food and water will lead to price increases. This will have a direct impact on households. The situation will be most severe for pensioners, the unemployed and single parents in vulnerable areas. Food inflation may lead to food riots and social unrest. Higher water prices are pernicious for agricultural production, industrial processes and domestic use.

In extremis, such price increases create famine, which will spark social unrest.

As commodity prices rise, there may be loss of profits, should there be a price freeze.

As food industry raw materials become scarce, the supply chain may fail. As a result, production fails further, resulting in bankruptcies. As companies are affected through the supply chain, unemployment will also increase. This is true for food supply, but also for water-hungry industries such as energy, tourism,…

Inflation will occur, causing central banks to raise interest rates against inflation. This increases financing costs and therefore reduces economic activity.

Distortion of internal markets can lead to protectionism.

Because Europe relies heavily on food imports from other regions, price increases will affect European economies more severely. After all, Europe is also the continent that will be relatively most affected by global warming.

Increasing risks from water and food shortages are increasing insurance costs and credit risks. This creates instability in the financial sector.

Governments may feel obliged to spend more subsidies to mitigate the effects of deficits. This creates further budget deficits and debt burdens.

Migration:

Receiving countries seem to bear significant costs for migrant integration, such as education, health care and social support. This sometimes fails. This can cause higher taxes.

Home countries may suffer from “brain drain,” as people seek better opportunities abroad, where shortages are less acute. This creates a shortage of talent and skills locally.

All this undermines the resilience of the economy and society against new shocks and crises. As a result, among other things, countries may become dependent on external aid.

With an aging population in Europe, there is a war for talent in all sectors, including those dependent on water and food.

Environmental risks of food and water shortages, and food loss:

Increased water stress during water shortages:

Water stress is the situation that occurs when in an area the demand for water exceeds the available water supply. Competition then occurs between different sectors, as well as between countries sharing rivers and groundwater. Especially in areas with high population density. Or in areas already experiencing drought. In addition, it causes disruption to ecosystems.

The main causes of increased water stress are climate change, population growth, pollution from waste and chemicals, and unsustainable water withdrawals from the soil. Excessive abstraction of groundwater and surface water can lead to depletion of water resources and land subsidence.

Groundwater depletion:

If groundwater abstraction occurs faster than natural renewal, it also causes land subsidence and saline intrusions and reduces river flow.

Chemicals, wastes and sewage contaminate groundwater. This makes the water unusable for further use.

Climate change, especially drought, locally leads to reduced precipitation, reducing groundwater recharge. This increases the risk of forest fires, which releases greenhouse gases.

Reduction of biodiversity:

Water shortages and water pollution affect aquatic ecosystems, with negative consequences for aquatic life. This results in loss of biodiversity and disruption of food chains.

However, the diversity of life on Earth is essential for ecosystem services that are vital to us humans for our resilience. Examples of such ecosystem services include providing food for other animal and plant species, water purification, crop pollination, climate regulation, clean air… Loss of these also directly affects the economy.

Land degradation:

Land degradation is the phenomenon whereby land loses its productivity and ecological functions. This can occur through human activities or natural processes. Climate change accelerates and exacerbates land degradation. It causes the loss of habitats for plants and animals, leading to species extinction. It also causes loss of fertile land, erosion and reduction in the water holding capacity of soil. This is pernicious for agriculture. In extremis, it causes desertification and flooding.

Food loss:

Inadequate technical storage and transportation facilities can lead to food spoilage in vulnerable areas. However, this produces additional emissions of greenhouse gases and pollution of water and land.

Outlook:

The potential impact of these risks will increase in the coming years due to the combination of climate change and population growth.

The political risks of food and water shortages:

Social unrest and conflict, political pressure and diplomatic tensions:

Not having access to basic needs such as food and water creates feelings of fear and frustration, shame, negative identity, feelings of marginalization and lack of self-efficacy. These can lead to social unrest, protests and even violence. This undermines political stability. We are already seeing this in various parts of the world. There, drought and water shortages have caused conflict. Poverty and inequality increase social tensions and economic inequality which locally undermines security.

Competition for scarce resources creates conflict among communities, ethnic groups and countries. Governments that fail to provide continuous access food and water quickly lose legitimacy in the eyes of the people. This creates a power vacuum and power shifts. From this, all sorts of internal conflicts ensue.

Countries with more food and water can put political pressure on other countries. This makes those countries unstable. Also such situations thus give rise to diplomatic tensions. This makes international cooperation difficult and is can create conflict.

Consequences of geopolitical tensions, besides war, include disruption of international trade.

Undermining international cooperation:

Countries will be less likely to cooperate on e.g. the climate problem if they are concerned about water and food. Water shortage, for example, acts as a “threat multiplier”

Countries will use their military power to secure their access to water and food. This creates increasing militarization. This creates worse international relations.

Response to dependence on imports:

In Europe, a repeat of water and heat stress in 2022 could lead to lower crop yields this year, with implications for EU consumers and global food security. Europe imports a lot of food from other countries. Especially vegetable protein-rich animal feed, in addition to food. Shortages and political situations there could raise prices and jeopardize the food supply chain to Europe.

In “EPRS,” Antonio Albaladejo Román writes :

“In the long term, the decisive challenge for food security in Europe and the world will be the transition to sustainable and resilient food systems capable of feeding a growing population. This objective is at the heart of the ‘farm to table’ strategy, which aims to make EU food production more resilient and ecologically neutral while remaining competitive and able to provide EU consumers with affordable and nutritious food. To this end, in a March 2022 resolution, the European Parliament called for enhanced European strategic autonomy in food, feed and fertilizers.”

Legal risks of food and water shortages:

Human rights risks:

This includes, first of all, the right to water and food under Article 11 of the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights.

The 1948 General Convention on Human Rights recognizes this right. Deficiencies in it cause violations of these rights. This primarily for vulnerable groups such as children, the elderly and people with disabilities.

De facto, this deficit is a violation of the right to life and health.

Shortages of food and water, can suffer from discrimination and inequality. Such issues can lead to a range of legal consequences. Examples include legal climate lawsuits against governments or corporations, collective actions such as environmental groups and human rights organizations taking actions, international monitoring by international bodies to check governments’ compliance with their obligations.

Migration:

This raises legal issues regarding refugee status, asylum law and the rights of migrants.

Risks for migrants include violation of the right to asylum, exploitation and human trafficking with sexual exploitation or forced labor. There is also detention and ill-treatment where governments hold them in unacceptable conditions. There can also be a lack of basic services such as food, water, shelter and medical care.

Risks for countries of origin, transit and destination are increased illegal migration, social tensions, strain on public services and international tensions. The latter when there are disagreements over responsibility for receiving migrants.

Environmental damage:

This may impose legal obligations on governments to protect and restore biodiversity.

Economic losses:

Shortages of water can create costs and government intervention with production and revenue losses for companies. This can lead to bankruptcy, which creates legal proceedings for creditors and shareholders.

Trade distortions:

Countries can introduce export restrictions to protect their own water supplies.

These can lead to disruptions in supply chains, which can increase production and trade costs. Damage claims may follow from this.

They can lead to problems with international trade rules, (World Trade Organization (WTO) rules). This may cause investment disputes in the future by companies affected by trade disputes and therefore take legal action against governments.

All this may discourage companies from doing international business.

Such market destabilization can bring contractual disputes as prices rise or supplies are halted.

Governments must therefore intervene to stabilize markets.

For example, Mark Freudenberger and David Miller write in “Tenure, Governance, and Natural Resource Management” : “When resource ownership and property rights are uncertain, the potential for sustainable resource management is undermined. However, …, the foundations for sustainable resource management are in place when the rules and institutions governing resource use, transfer, and ownership are secure…”. This indicates that the management of natural resources, such as water, is sometimes unclear or inadequate

Causes of such unclear regulation are the complexity to regulate, conflicts of interest and lack of scientific understanding.

Demographic risks due to food and water shortages can be divided into direct and indirect effects:

Direct effects:

As mentioned earlier, there is increased migration.

This puts pressure on infrastructure and social services in recipient countries, and creates social tensions.

This migration is due to a number of factors:

• escaping hunger and thirst
• migration as a survival strategy
• climate change exacerbates migration through drought and desertification

Consequences of increased migration for Europe are:

• pressure on infrastructure and social facilities such as schools, hospitals and housing, which are overburdened.
• social tensions between migrants and natives because of competition for scarce resources, cultural differences or xenophobia.
• economic impact on host countries. After all, migrants there can compete with natives for jobs.

Increased mortality:

Shortages of food and water can cause malnutrition and dehydration, reduced fertility and disease. As a result, there is an increase in mortality rates in more vulnerable areas.

Indirect effects:

Alienation

These situations give rise to a weakening of social cohesion as people become more individualistic in their behavior. This alienates them from each other.

Delayed development and dependency

Delayed development of affected areas because people have less time and energy to invest in education, health care and the like.

Malnutrition and disease create a flight of talent: people seek better opportunities elsewhere. This increases dependence on developed countries for aid and support.

Specific risks to the world:

Rapid population growth

As a result, there is increasing pressure on available food and water resources. This increases the problem of shortages.

Climate Change

This can cause a depletion of energy resources. Air conditioning and heating, among other things, increase the demand for energy. This causes a steady depletion of fossil fuels.

Conclusion

Consequences of these issues are again: migration, conflict, increased vulnerability due to disease and inequality due to poverty and unequal opportunities. In addition, this also causes environmental damage such as the clearing of forests for farmland and the depletion of water sources for irrigation.

I think the way out is through international cooperation, within a legally enforceable context. The questions we can ask there are manifold, such as: (non-exhaustive list)

• Who has the right to use natural resources and how can they be used in a sustainable way?
• How can we ensure that distribution is fair and equitable so that food and water are not compromised as a humane right?
• What role should international treaties, standards and regulations play in allocating resources to stakeholders?
• Who is liable for environmental damage from operations?
• How will companies and governments be held accountable to the environment?
• How do we do ecosystem restoration?