Insufficient public infrastructure and social protection

Insufficient public infrastructure and social protection : Non-existent, inadequate or inequitable public infrastructure, services and social protection. Includes, but is not limited to: unaffordable or inadequate social security and benefits, housing, public education, child and elderly care, health care, sanitation and transportation systems, and pension systems. The question in this article is what risks insufficient public infrastructure and social protection entails. To this end, I examine this phenomenon from a socio-economic-social, (geo-)political, military and demographic perspective. The question thus becomes: ‘What are the socio-economic-social, (geo-)political, military and demographic implications of insufficient public infrastructure and social protection ?’

This text I write in my own capacity, not that of any organization. The 2025 Global Risk Report – WEF gives this definition (quotes have been translated using a translation program)

Author: Manu Steens

Social and societal risks of insufficient public infrastructure and social protection

Inequality

There is a growing inequality in the sense of a growing gap between rich and poor. The principle of poor social mobility (opportunities to rise socio-economically) is central to this. As a result, the concentration of poverty shifts to certain neighborhoods or areas . (See also the contribution of ‘ Inequality of wealth and income’ .)

In many countries, this inequality entails health risks. We are thinking of reduced accessibility for vulnerable groups. This results in higher mortality rates and lower life expectancy for this vulnerable target group. Conversely, Carolina Cardona, Neha Sahai Anand, Y. Natalia Alfonso, Jonathon P. Leider, J. Mac McCullough, Beth Resnick, David Bishai conclude in ‘ County health outcomes linkage to county spending on social services, building infrastructure, and law and order ‘: “Funding for public health and other social interventions is associated with subsequent improvements in life expectancy. Spending in the social services is more closely tied to future life expectancy at birth in rural counties. In urban counties spending on building infrastructure is associated with more future gains in life expectancy at birth.”

Social Mobility

The lack of social mobility and the growing gap between rich and poor has economic consequences due to poor health care. This will result in a decrease in labor productivity. Due to a reduced chance of good education, there will be a relative loss of human capital that should have been employable. (Covid19 showed this according to the World Bank : “Globally $10 trillion of lifetime earnings could be lost for this cohort of students, due to lower levels of learning, school closings, or the risk of dropping out of school.”) In addition, higher unemployment occurs due to limited social and economic mobility and reduced access to skilled work. Measures that the EU is taking in this regard include:

• helping young people enter the labor market,
• reduce long-term unemployment,
• improving job seekers’ skills,
• to facilitate the mobility of workers within the EU.

Vulnerable groups are older people, people with disabilities, single parents and children from vulnerable groups with long-term developmental effects due to transmission of vulnerability across generations. Women are disproportionately burdened with unpaid care tasks.

Housing Problems

A shortage of essential infrastructure also entails housing problems. With homelessness and housing insecurity as an obvious consequence. In their article ‘Investing in Public Health Infrastructure to Address the Complexities of Homelessness’ John P Allegrante and David A Sleet write “We argue that homelessness is increasingly exacerbated by system-wide infrastructure failures occurring at the municipal, state, and federal government levels…” But also with poor housing conditions with health risks, such as through slum landlords.

Damaged Social Cohesion

Social cohesion is damaged by, among other things, increasing social isolation of vulnerable groups. Indeed, the reverse is also true: the World Bank Group writes in its publication ‘How Does Social Protection Impact Social Cohesion in the Sahel? A Review of Existing Evidence and Gaps’ that “…social protection programs often improved social cohesion as reported by program beneficiaries, including more trust, cooperation for the common good, involvement in local associations, and a greater sense of inclusive identity.”

Such social problems and risks contribute to political, geopolitical and military risks.

Political risks of insufficient public infrastructure and social protection

Social Instability

Political risks create social instability through an increase in social unrest and protests, sometimes with violence. The latter phenomenon is not yet well understood. Aleksandar S. Jovanović, Ortwin Renn and Regina Schröter of OECD write in ‘ Social Unrest ‘ that “The escalation to mass violence is still a process that is not well understood in the social and historical sciences. There seem to be three major components that have to come together: the perception of a legitimate cause that would justify even the use of force; the inability of the public authorities to cope with the situation due to lack of capacity, overreaction or over leniency and a random factor of mass momentum that may kick in when some trigger is released (a tipping point).”. This often implies a decline in trust in government institutions.

As noted in ‘ Wealth and Income Inequality ‘, when there is political and social instability, people are often less afraid of legal reprisals and turn to crime as a short-term solution to get out of trouble.

Distrust & Polarization

A decline in trust in institutions among a large part of the population is accompanied by a decline in trust in democratic processes. People become skeptical about the government when it comes to guaranteeing the basic needs of the population. In their eyes, the political system is less legitimate.

Certain political movements are using this to fuel political polarization. Ruben NIZARD, Head of Sector and Political Risk Analysis at Coface, writes in his blog ‘ Political & Social Risk: what you need to watch out for in 2025 ‘ that “Political uncertainty grows with the rise of populism worldwide, and particularly in Europe.”. As a result, tensions between different demographic and socio-economic groups are increasing. Populist and anti-establishment movements and parties are becoming more successful. They use rhetoric targeting “the elite” and propose simplistic but unrealistic solutions to complex societal problems. With democratic erosion and the undermining of healthy democratic values as a result.

Governance challenges that arise, among other things, are, as with many political risks, an increasing pressure on local and national governments. Governments become less attractive as employers. Potential candidates estimate the chance to make a difference very low. There is a decreasing capacity to manage crises effectively.

Geopolitical risks of insufficient public infrastructure and social protection

Internal Political Problems

The internal political problems damage the international image of the country and result in a weakened position and influence. A counterexample of this is America in the sense that in the article ‘America’s Democracy Problems Hurt Its Global Image — But Not Where It Really Counts’ the author writes: “Despite damage to America’s image, democratic backsliding doesn’t reduce foreign public support for cooperating with the US on important policies such as security agreements or economic partnerships.” International organizations will point the finger at the country.

Alliances can change as a result , as well as through a lack of political and military commitment to security. This also changes international power relations and thus the influence that the country can exert in international forums. There is a greater vulnerability to external pressure and influence from other powers.

Economical Problems

The weakening due to internal problems creates vulnerability with economic problems as a result. (For example, The World Bank writes in the article ‘ Well Maintained: economic benefits from more reliable and resilient infrastructure ‘ that “The benefit of higher resilience of infrastructure assets is that it reduces the life-cycle costs, through avoided repairs and reconstruction costs… the benefit of more reliable and resilient infrastructure is that it provides more reliable services at a lower cost… the benefit of more reliable and resilient infrastructure is that it improves productivity and quality of life.”)

Eventually, the country becomes more and more dependent on international financial support or loans. In her master thesis ‘ DOES FOREIGN AID PROMOTE HUMAN RIGHTS? ‘ Nora Engvall Olmås believes that the advantage of financial support is that “the total foreign aid inflows to aid receiving countries are associated with an improvement in respect for human rights. This relationship is especially robust when looking at the most basic human rights, physical integrity rights – the right of every citizen to live a life free from torture and political killings. However, there are also strong indications that foreign aid also has an effect on respect for more general civil liberties such as freedom of movement, freedom of expression and freedom of association.”.

Cyber as a Problem

Due to a lack of political initiative, less money is flowing into combating cybercrime and cyberwar against the few existing critical infrastructures, paving the way for hybrid threats and disinformation and low resilience to external influence. Sandra Kalniete and Tomass Pildegovičs in their article ‘ Strengthening the EU’s resilience to hybrid threats ‘ write that “Since Russia’s interference in the 2016 US elections and the Cambridge Analytica scandal, there has been a growing awareness of hybrid threats and foreign interference in democratic processes in Western political and academic circles… These activities can include disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks, inducing political or economic corruption, infiltrating agents of influence, pressuring independent media and buying up critical infrastructure.”.

On the technological front, strategic independence is becoming increasingly difficult. On the economic front, there is a lack of industrial independence and competitiveness. As a result, dependence on foreign countries is growing. Challenges to counter this are, according to Michael Roemer in his article ‘ Dependence and industrialization strategies ‘: “Five types of dependence are considered …: (1) market dependence: (2) technological dependence; (3) managerial and entrepreneurial dependence; (4) foreign capital dependence; and (5) economic inflexibility.”.

Military risks of insufficient public infrastructure and social protection

Reduction of Defense Capacity

Defense capacity is being reduced due to inadequate civil infrastructure such as roads, ports, and energy grids,… which are useful from a dual-use perspective. This reduces the ability to rapidly deploy military resources. This ultimately means poorer logistical capacity for troop and material transport. An example of problems in Guam is described in the GAO report ‘ Defense Infrastructure: Planning Efforts for the Proposed Military Buildup on Guam Are in Their Initial Stages, with Many Challenges Yet to Be Addressed ‘: “…highways may be unable to bear the increase in traffic associated with the military buildup, its electrical system may not be adequate to deliver the additional energy needed, its water and wastewater treatment systems are already near capacity,…”.

Recruitment Problems

Poor health care, poor education and poor nutrition are causing problems with the recruitment of military personnel. There is a sharp decline in the physical and cognitive fitness of potential recruits. In addition, the evolution of patriotic feelings among candidates is causing difficulties in attracting and retaining suitable personnel. After all, there is less social support for defense efforts in some regions of Europe. In addition, internal political tensions that distract from external threats will not contribute to better military readiness. (Taylor Crowley in the article ‘ 5 Reasons Why Military Recruitment is Struggling in the US in 2025 ‘ mentions “Eroding Trust and Political Divisiveness”)

Underinvestment

Due to the political relaxation of the past decades, there is also underinvestment in defense and the defense industrial base in Europe. Innovation in the context of dual-use technology has been underused. As a result, there is a great dependency on foreign suppliers for critical military systems such as modern military aircraft.

Cyber & Critical Infrastructure

Cybersecurity of critical infrastructure is an issue where there may be underinvestment, resulting in outdated systems. As a result, critical infrastructure has insufficient resilience during conflicts. The result is a lack of protection of vital services and facilities.

Other Problems

In addition, there is increased psychological stress for the families of the recruits. A second consequence will be a lower capacity for long-term deployment.

Due to an obsolescence of appropriate relevant training there is a diminished ability to analyze intelligence for national security . This includes counterintelligence and counterespionage.

All this could lead to an inability to meet military obligations within alliances.

Demographic risks of insufficient public infrastructure and social protection

An analogon

A large number of demographic risks are analogous to those of ‘ Wealth and Income Inequality ‘ such as:

• Unfavourable migration patterns, with reduced capacity to attract qualified immigrants and demographic imbalances due to selective (internal) migration;
• Limited access to affordable childcare discourages family expansion;
• Ageing and pension crisis;
• Geographical imbalances due to selective emigration of young population groups, which normally constitute the productive workforce;
• Overpopulation in urban areas due to internal migration to cities;
• Health demography with lower life expectancy of vulnerable groups;
• Problems with social mobility including intergenerational transmission of poverty and inequality in access to benefits based on income.

Housing Problems

A lack of infrastructure further contributes to housing problems, with homelessness and housing insecurity. (Emma Woolley writes in ‘ What causes high rates of homelessness in some regions and not others? ‘ that: “In some areas, lack of infrastructure contributes to the kind of homelessness (ie hidden homelessness is more prevalent in rural and northern parts of Canada due to a lack of shelters, rental and transitional housing) but not the rates overall.”) In addition, due to the evolution of the economic environment, there are generational differences in access to housing and a demographic clustering of neighborhoods with underserved housing.