| Erosion of human rights and-or civil liberties : Loss of protection for rights inherent to all people, regardless of individual status, and/or the freedoms that underlie civil space. Includes, but is not limited to, the rights to: life and liberty; work and education; freedom of expression; peaceful assembly; non-discrimination based on gender, race, ethnicity, and other characteristics; and privacy. The question in this article is what risks erosion of human rights and-or civil liberties entails. To this end, I look at this phenomenon from a social, political and demographic point of view. The question thus becomes: ‘What are the social, political and demographic implications of erosion of human rights and/or civil liberties ?’ | In this text I write in my own capacity, not that of any organization. The 2025 Global Risk Report – WEF gives this definition (quotes from documents have been translated using a translation program) |
Author: Manu Steens
Table of contents
What does WEF’s 2025 Global Risk Report say?
‘Societal risks are the third major long-term concern (page 68):’
“The third category of risks … are societal risks. Although this risk category has not been addressed in every edition of the Global Risks Report, five of the eight risks score above average: inequality (wealth, income), lack of economic opportunity or unemployment, social polarization, infectious diseases, and erosion of human rights and/or civil liberties.”
The attachments state the following:
Erosion of human rights is important in the following countries: in the top 5 risks this is the
- 2 nd risk in El Salvador
- 3rd risk in India
- 1st risk in Nicaragua
And the most effective actions against it are:
- National and local regulations,
- Global treaties and agreements,
- Public awareness and education and
- Multi-stakeholder involvement
Socio-political risks of erosion of human rights and/or civil liberties
A first social cluster is the social inequality and marginalisation of minorities and vulnerable groups. This is expressed in their discrimination and exclusion. A consequence of this is the emergence of deeper socio-economic divides which in turn is expressed in a limitation of social mobility and opportunities for the weak.
A second cluster is the erosion of the democratic constitutional state, whereby the political system is adjusted towards a weakening of ‘checks and balances‘. This in itself results in lower trust in government institutions. It can also manifest itself in a shift towards authoritarian forms of government.
I discussed a third cluster extensively before: social unrest and polarization in society. A number of population groups are pitted against each other in an ‘us versus them’ story. As mentioned in an earlier blog, this creates the opportunity for protests and civil unrest. The political debate becomes more hardened, more discussions are held, rather than dialogue. This in turn fuels further erosion of human rights.
A fourth cluster occurs with most of the risks I discussed earlier ( interstate and intrastate violence). Psychological and health effects will occur here on a social level. This includes: stress, fear, great uncertainty, also about one’s own safety, and possibly limited access to care due to the exclusion mentioned earlier.
A fifth cluster on a social-societal level are the effects that occur between generations. Problems in all kinds of areas are transferred to future generations, who therefore end up in a more hostile world. This with attitudes and actions of state and non-state actors that undermine the rule of law, democracy and human rights. But also one with fewer educational opportunities , except for an elite. This goes hand in hand with a mortgage on social cohesion.
A sixth cluster of social consequences concerns cultural impoverishment. ( EPRS wrote in July 2017: ‘The European Convention of Human Rights does not recognise the right to culture officially…’) Certain classes will oppose cultural expression and diversity for the sake of control or conflict. They will oppose, for example, traditional, or modern, clothing. There will be resistance from and against critical voices in art and media, this together with an impoverishment and hardening of the public debate.
Political risks of erosion of human rights and/or civil liberties
A first thing that occurs on the political level is the erosion or weakening of democratic institutions. This occurs when the separation of powers is weakened, including the undermining of any independent judiciary. Another thing besides this is the unworkability of the parliamentary system as well as a large-scale falsification of electoral processes.
Because one of the polarised parties will be stronger, a dangerous concentration of political power will arise with an increase of that in the executive power and a weakening of parliamentary control. This is both a consequence of and a cause for the risk of abuse of power.
An increased chance of authoritarian rule leads to a restriction of political participation, possibly with a mockery of voting rights and a suppression of political opposition, including a refusal to take minority interests into account in political decision-making.
Such an authoritarian government benefits from a strong approach and influence on media and information provision, including censorship, imposed self-censorship, restriction of any form of press freedom. This goes hand in hand with manipulation of public information by dictating texts that are useful to the authoritarian government, which aims to restrict critical supervision of those in power that conceals their actions.
The phenomenon is not without international political consequences, because Western democracies tend to reduce or break diplomatic relations. This leads to reduced credibility in international forums and to a weakened position in multilateral organizations. The aim of this can be to break authoritarian power.
As one might suspect, with societal polarization comes political polarization. Yet political polarization is only a minor cause of the erosion of democracy and civil liberties in the US. (On Brookings.edu writes Vanessa Williamson ‘Grumbach finds that partisan polarization has a “minimal role” in explaining the states’ democratic backsliding, but that Republican control of state government “dramatically reduces states’ democratic performance.” ‘ But also ‘Since 2010, state legislatures have instituted laws intended to reduce voters’ access to the ballot, politicians’ election administration, and foreclose electoral competition via extreme gerrymandering. ‘).
Such a political-cultural shift will make undemocratic behavior seem normal. This will further intolerant political discourse. Jennifer McCoy writes: ‘In healthy democracies, opposing sides are seen as political adversaries to compete against and at times to negotiate with. In deeply polarized democracies, the other side comes to be seen as an enemy needing to be vanquished.‘
Far-reaching international reputational damage will weaken relations with other countries, resulting in, among other things, less immigration of talent, and trade relations could dry up or even be deliberately blocked.
Demographic risks of erosion of human rights and/or civil liberties
When human rights and civil liberties are eroded, people try to escape their situation. (Freedom House: ‘Judges, prosecutors, reporters, and human rights defenders who had worked on anti-impunity efforts fled the country to escape politically motivated prosecutions, arbitrary detention, and physical threats‘) Migration effects occur, first among those who see the best opportunities abroad, such as highly educated people (‘brain drain’). They have more opportunities with external migration. To a lesser extent, minorities and more vulnerable groups leave where they can. This entails the risk of uncontrolled refugee flows.
Due to a departure of mainly young people ( between 20 and 34 years old) a change occurs locally in the population composition. There is accelerated ageing and an unbalanced male-female distribution of both the migrant flow and those who remain. (The UN sees migration as one of three components of population change, together with fertility and mortality, which they regularly research.)
All this has an impact on family formation but also the breaking up of families. People can start a family later due to high uncertainty about their future. This will make them choose to have fewer children. Also uncertain is the chance of family reunification.
Effects on remaining population groups are according to the OECD among other things: ‘Reviewing the analytical and empirical evidence on the economic and social costs and benefits of migration and remittances for sending countries reveals that migration can generate substantial direct and indirect gains for sending countries via employment generation, human capital accumulation, remittances, diaspora networks and return migration. Policy coherence across various policies including migration, trade, investment and development cooperation can augment these gains.‘
However, this study does not distinguish between differences according to the cause of migration. There are therefore cases where the following effects occur:
- Increased vulnerability of the elderly, for whom fewer people can take care.
- Reduced opportunities for young people as a breakdown of democracy will also affect the education system and the economy (which may increase wealth for some but cause impoverishment for others).
- Increasing marginalization of minorities staying behind.
All this has the effect of increasing inequality between polarized groups, where it can be shown that such polarization within one’s own group can quickly spread to the entire population and can persist even when the conditions that caused this polarization are reversed.