National Risk Analysis 2014 – Norwegian Directorate for Civil Protection

Drawn up by: DSB – Norwegian Directorate for Civil Protection

This national risk assessment dates from 2014 but is still topical.

Anyone who takes the trouble to go through the work from A to Z will receive a fantastic reward for it:

–    The work has a large number of ‘cases’ of scenarios of what comes down to society (from Norway, but many are more universally), and therefore also to the organizations in that society.
It is a good example of qualitative risk analysis elaborated in detail
The uncertainty (uncertainty) on the qualitative classification of probability (here: likelihood) and impact (here: consequences) is also taken into account on the basis of qualitative arguments.
At the same time, each case provides an example of a qualitative sensitivity analysis in the uncertainty analysis.

The cases are structured according to three classes: Natural phenomena, Major accidents and Malicious acts. In the end there follows an “overall risk analysis” in which the cases are summarized and in which a reasoning is worked out that elaborates on a statement by Einstein and one from Abraham Lincoln.

“Imagination is more important than knowledge. For knowledge is limited, whereas imagination embraces the entire world. “- Albert Einstein.

This is illustrated by the first telegraph line that was opened in Norway in 1855: do you think of a risk analysis of the dangers of a solar eruption with particles that seriously disturb its functioning, if you know that this phenomenon was only discovered in 1859?

So: “imagine the future”. How can we prepare for a future that we still do not know what it will look like? For this the statement of Abraham Lincoln applies:

“The best way to predict your future is to create it.”

Therefore, when reading the cases, pay attention to the idea of ​​what this case will look like in the year 2030, 2040 or 2050.

Manu Steens

Manu works at the Flemish Government in risk management and Business Continuity Management. On this website, he shares his own opinions regarding these and related fields. Since 2012, he has been working at the Crisis Centre of the Flemish Government (CCVO), where he has progressed in BCM, risk management, and crisis management. Since August 2021, he has been a knowledge worker for the CCVO. As of January 2024, he works at the Department of Chancellery and Foreign Affairs of the Flemish Government. Here, he combines BCM, risk management, and crisis management to create a tailored form of resilience management to meet the needs of the Flemish Government.

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