Drawn up by: DSB – Norwegian Directorate for Civil Protection
This national risk assessment dates from 2014 but is still topical.
Anyone who takes the trouble to go through the work from A to Z will receive a fantastic reward for it:
– The work has a large number of ‘cases’ of scenarios of what comes down to society (from Norway, but many are more universally), and therefore also to the organizations in that society.
– It is a good example of qualitative risk analysis elaborated in detail
– The uncertainty (uncertainty) on the qualitative classification of probability (here: likelihood) and impact (here: consequences) is also taken into account on the basis of qualitative arguments.
– At the same time, each case provides an example of a qualitative sensitivity analysis in the uncertainty analysis.
The cases are structured according to three classes: Natural phenomena, Major accidents and Malicious acts. In the end there follows an “overall risk analysis” in which the cases are summarized and in which a reasoning is worked out that elaborates on a statement by Einstein and one from Abraham Lincoln.
“Imagination is more important than knowledge. For knowledge is limited, whereas imagination embraces the entire world. “- Albert Einstein.
This is illustrated by the first telegraph line that was opened in Norway in 1855: do you think of a risk analysis of the dangers of a solar eruption with particles that seriously disturb its functioning, if you know that this phenomenon was only discovered in 1859?
So: “imagine the future”. How can we prepare for a future that we still do not know what it will look like? For this the statement of Abraham Lincoln applies:
“The best way to predict your future is to create it.”
Therefore, when reading the cases, pay attention to the idea of what this case will look like in the year 2030, 2040 or 2050.