| After talks in which Iran does not want to give up on nuclear developments and indicates that it will continue them, it may be necessary for the USA to use the accumulated military power to get rid of Iran’s leaders. What such a war would look like, how it would go, is unclear for the time being. I assume in the first instance that the Russian military build-up between the American Fleet and Iran will not be involved in such a possible military intervention. So what does a Ripple Effect Analysis between Iran and the United States give us after such a possible war? | In this analysis, I give my own opinion, not that of any organization. |
Author: Manu Steens
Contents
The structure of the analysis
I am exploring a post-Khamenei Iran in a broader context. I assume:
- Khamenei and his followers are removed from the position of power.
- The USA will stay in Iran for a longer period of time ‘to put things in order’.
- The relevant ‘agents’ that are part of a broader context are Russia, China, the son of the former Shah, Syria led by the former Al-Qaeda and possibly Iraq.
- Then I try to explore ‘the new normal’ for these ‘agents’ with the following questions for each of them:
- What are the new opportunities or threats;
- How can these agents act differently under these threats or opportunities;
- What new uncertainties may develop with regard to these ‘agents’.
Agent 1: Russia
New environment: What are the new opportunities or threats for Russia
- Russia can deploy its fleet in full glory between the American fleet and Iran and show its capabilities on a military-technical level through military exercises together with Iran.
- If Russia gets involved in a conflict between the USA and Iran, this is the start of a second front for Russia.
- Russia can be credible and create new partners, for example by making a claim against the USA as aggressors.
How can Russia act differently in the face of these threats or opportunities
- Russia can fully exploit its experience with drone warfare against the USA to deter the USA from starting a conflict with them.
- Russia is already concerned about its shrunken sphere of influence. Losing Iran as a partner further reinforces this fear.
- It can use such a claim to justify its own future military interventions. It then feels less obliged to seek approval from international players for international support for its actions.
What new uncertainties may develop (with possible unintended consequences)
- Russia may further increase its aggression against Ukraine, but it may also become more aggressive internationally.
- Russia can feel less of a need for international consensus and continue its own path militarily.
- Will Russia eventually get involved in the conflict between Iran and the USA?
Agent 2: China
New environment: What are the new opportunities or threats for China
- The USA has built up a large force in Asia. It is uncertain whether it will continue to be only about Iran.
- China could lose an important military and trading partner.
How can China act differently in the face of these threats or opportunities
- China may be concerned about ports other than those of the Panama Canal.
- China can act as a mediator when the conflict has ended.
- China may try to expand or modernize ports and other infrastructure in Iran after the end of the conflict.
What new uncertainties may develop (with possible unintended consequences)
- China weighs up the opportunities: does it choose to get involved in a conflict or does it first choose a solution to the ‘Taiwan problem’ or the ‘Panama Canal’ problem?
- China, like Russia, can choose not to care about international support anymore.
Agent 3: The new Shah
New environment: What are the new opportunities or threats for the new Shah
- The new Shah can profit of the waves of violence by the USA.
How can the Shah act differently in the face of these threats or opportunities
- Upon appointment, the Shah can come to trade agreements with the USA and with countries and partners that are friendly to him.
What new uncertainties may develop (with possible unintended consequences)
- The Shah could eventually free himself from the USA and go his own way, also nuclear.
Agent 4: Syria
New environment: What are the new opportunities or threats for Syria
- There are more USA soldiers in the area. If the regime of Syria is suspicious, it can react negatively.
How can Syria act differently in the face of these threats or opportunities
- Syria may try to strengthen its influence on religious minorities in Iran. It can create ‘sleepers’.
- Syria can attack Iran itself.
What new uncertainties may develop (with possible unintended consequences)
- If Syria can become more stable and stronger with the support of the USA, the Al-Qaeda regime can turn against the USA once it feels strong enough.
Agent 5: Iraq
New environment: What are the new opportunities or threats for Iraq
- An old adversary is removed from his position of power.
- The USA is back at ‘the front door’.
- Iraq can welcome the Shah as a new ruler in Iran.
How can Iraq act differently in the face of these threats or opportunities
- Iraq can try to increase its influence in Iran.
- Iraq may become suspicious of Syria and the USA.
What new uncertainties may develop (with possible unintended consequences)
- Iraq can try more intensively to join the BRICS countries.
- Iraq can increase or decrease its openness towards the USA as a trading partner depending on its political possibilities.