| As the war with Iran continues to roll out, it is useful to identify the collective connections. The reason for this is that we see that the whole world seems to be impacted, and this in ways that were not expected. To demonstrate how complex this war has an impact on the world, it is useful to use a ‘causal loop diagramming’ method. | In this contribution I give my own opinion, not that of any organization. |
Author: Manu Steens
Contents
Causal Loop Diagramming in short
First of all, you determine the actors on stage who can have an influence. Then you determine the most important objectives of these actors. In order to ever be able to monitor the achievement of these objectives, indicators are needed that the actors must keep an eye on. Depending on the course of those actors, the actors will take measures at their disposal to achieve those goals. When putting this fact in a diagram, it is useful to list sequences, which consist of subjects, per actor. These sequences can be applied to a sheet of paper, with (extra) relationships between the subjects. This is followed by a discussion of the diagram.
Step 1 – The Actors’ main objectives
| USA | No nuclear weapons in Iran – Oil – Keep US Dollar as Petrodollar – Weaken Iran militarily – Open the Strait of Hormuz – Testing weapons systems. |
| Israel | No nuclear weapons in Iran – Eliminating Iran’s regime – New, Israel-friendly, regime in power – Weakening Iran militarily – Destroying Iran’s “nuclear intellect”. |
| Regime of Iran | Nuclear weapons and non-military nuclear applications – Destruction of Israel – Countering US influence. |
| 20% Population of Iran | Peace – Supporting the Old Regime – Theocracy – Undermining Israel and the USA. |
| 80% Population of Iran | Peace – Democracy or the new Shah – More freedom. |
| Hezbollah | Destruction of Israel – Countering the influence of the USA. |
| Hamas | Destruction of Israel. |
| China | Peace and trade – Renminbin as a counterweight to the US Dollar, also for petroleum – Countering the influence of the USA. |
| Russia | Ending the war in Ukraine – Destroying the status of the US Dollar as a Petrodollar – Countering the influence of the USA – Playing apart NATO. |
| Population of the USA | Peace – A Strong US Dollar |
Step 2 – Indicators to watch
| USA | Status of the US Dollar as Petrodollar – Strait of Hormuz is safe and open – Evolution of weapon systems – Bodybags. |
| Israel | Iran’s regime falls or not – Nuclear sites shut down – Iran’s nuclear science intellectuals are killed – Iran’s weapons systems shut down. |
| Regime of Iran | Will Iran’s regime hold or not – Will the religious laws remain in force or not – Nuclear knowledge and competencies. |
| 20% Population of Iran | Will the regime of Iran hold or not – Will the religious laws remain in force or not – Is there enough food or not – Quality of public services – Are there energy sources or not – Patriotism. |
| 80% Population of Iran | Is there enough food or not – Quality of Public services – Are there energy sources or not – Patriotism. |
| Hezbollah | Is Hezbollah’s power declining or not – Is Hezbollah’s popularity declining or not. |
| Hamas | Is Hamas’s Power declining or Not – Is Hamas’s Popularity declining or Not. |
| China | Renminbin becomes relevant with respect to the US Dollar for commodities (such as gas and petroleum) in Asia and the BRICS countries. |
| Russia | The course of the war in Ukraine – Evolution of weapon systems. |
| Population of the USA | Strikes – The population is dissatisfied with the war in Iran – The population is dissatisfied with the economy in the USA. |
Step 3 – Strategy to influence variables
| USA | Invitation to 80% of Iran’s population to seize power – Short-term war efforts – Back out of the war situation – Provide aid to Israel to end the war quickly with quick wins – Increase efforts for rapid development of military drone systems. |
| Israel | Stepping up the war to totally destroy the regime’s public services – Stepping up the war effort – Stepping up espionage efforts for local reliable information – Taking over Lebanon and Syria. |
| Regime of Iran | No surrender – prepare for hit & run guerrilla when the USA plants boots on the ground on Iranian soil – Start terrorism efforts abroad. |
| 20% Population of Iran | No surrender – Suppression of the 80% of the population who are not in favor of the regime – support of the Revolutionary Guards. |
| 80% Population of Iran | Hoping for ‘USA boots on the ground’ on Iranian soil – Exerting pressure for adequate public services and for food – Turning public opinion against the regime – support for USA soldiers. |
| Hezbollah | Resisting Israel – Standing Up to Netanyahu. |
| Hamas | Winning the media war against Israel – Winning the hearts of the Palestinians – Increasing influence in the Palestinian territories. |
| China | Using diplomacy on behalf of Iran – Increasing espionage efforts – Working in silence and ‘undercover’. |
| Russia | Sharing military knowledge and know-how with the Iranian regime – Use of disinformation against NATO, the USA and Israel. |
| Population of the USA | Demonstrations against the government and the president – exerting pressure against the war – Refusing military service. |
Step 4 – Sequence
| USA | Attacks by the USAReducing Iran’s powerConvincing the population of Iran to revolution‘Boots on the ground’‘Quick winnings’Development of drone systems |
| Israel | Attacks by IsraelDisable RegimeDestroying nuclear knowledgeSpying against IranTakeover of Lebanon and Syria |
| Regime of Iran | Obstructing USA influence and presenceMaintaining power with revolutionary guardsPreparing for guerrilla warfareDrone war efforts and drone productionTerror as part of hybrid war abroadSupport Hezbollah en Hamas |
| 20% Population of Iran | Supporting the regimeQuality of public services and foodSuppressing oppositionSupporting the Revolutionary Guards |
| 80% Population of Iran | Quality of public services and foodOpposition to the regimeSupport ‘USA Boots on the ground’ |
| Hezbollah | Resisting Israel’s power |
| Hamas | Resisting Israel’s powerIncreasing popularity |
| China | Supporting the regime of IranCounteracting the influence of the USAIncreasing their own influencePreparing for after the war |
| Russia | Supporting the regime of IranDevelopment of Drone WarfareSharing drone warefare capabilities and knowledge with IranDisinformation towards NATO, the West, the USAWeakening NATO |
| Population of the USA | Demonstrations in the USA against the war and the current economyRefusal to do military service |
The collective connections
Limited discussion
There are many feedback loops in this analysis. The relationships are represented by ‘s’ or ‘o’ on arrows between the topics of step 4 above. ‘S’ means that in the relationship both become stronger or both weaken. ‘O’ means that if one strengthens, the other weakens or vice versa. By composing relationships, loops are formed, which can have a balancing or strengthening effect.
A first important loop could be the influence of the USA, which strengthens the opposition by the 80% of the population of Iran, which itself wants to put strong pressure on the quality of public services and food supply. However, the influence of the USA on the diplomatic level weakens due to lack of credibility, so that the USA increases its attacks, which lowers the possibilities of public services. As a result, the power of the Iranian regime grows because it weakens the opposition, which reduces the influence of the USA. That is why the attacks of the USA must be further intensified. This combination is also self-reinforcing because the USA tries to strengthen its influence with its attacks in order to be able to reduce its attacks from a strengthened position of influence afterwards.
A result, then, is a weakening of the opposition, giving the Revolutionary Guards more power and strengthening the 20% theocracy-hungry population, which further weakens and oppresses the 80% population that is in favor of opposition.
However, when the USA increases its attacks, the power of the regime decreases, causing it to increase drone production, which increases its power again through more possible drone attacks.
They are helped in this by Russia. Due to the war in Ukraine, Russia is going to develop more and better drone systems, which it shares in knowledge with the Iranian regime, allowing the power of the Iranian regime to rise again.
Due to the need for more attacks, the USA is also focusing on cheaper weapons, which means that they are also investing in the development of more advanced drone systems (but also of other weapon systems) that counteract Iran’s power.
Meanwhile, the USA is preparing ‘Boots on the ground’ to which Iran might respond with a reinforcement of possible guerrilla efforts.
The development of drone systems by the USA increases the chance of a number of ‘quick wins’ which weakens the regime of Iran, which increases the chances of the ‘boots on the ground’. However, these ‘boots on the ground’ displease the public in the USA, which will demonstrate more against the war and against the president of the USA and as a result of which the desire for military service or a military career in the USA and NATO will decrease sooner. Those demonstrations will also be fueled by disinformation from Russia, which also counteracts Israel’s influence.
Due to a need felt by Israel to increase the targeted attacks, Iran’s nuclear knowledge and capacity is eliminated along with the scientists, which weakens the Iranian regime. This strengthens Israel’s power and influence and potentially strengthens Israel’s espionage efforts in Iran, allowing for more targeted (and person-oriented) attacks.
Because of this situation, Iran may consider more hybrid warfare. This includes terrorist attacks abroad. This would temper the influence of the USA and fuel the discontent of the public in the USA.
Another game of Russia, along with China, is that they will develop their influence after the war. Whenever there will be. They do this to rekindle trade with and in Iran and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz safely. Because of these opportunities, their influence on the world stage will increase after the war.