| The purpose of this text is to illustrate the ” Quadrant Hypothesis Generation ” method of analysis through an example. Given the speed of evolution of facts, this example will soon be outdated. There are robust developments in the Middle East. Since Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the USA has also sided with a like-minded attack. In doing so, everyone has an interest in exploring the options of what the future may hold. | In this text I write my own opinion, not that of any organization |
Author: Manu Steens
Contents
The context
Prior
The USA made a proposal to Iran some weeks ago regarding their nuclear interests. The fact is that Iran is predominantly Shiite, while the vast majority of other Muslim countries are predominantly Sunni. These are warring factions. The Sunnis view the development of Iran’s nuclear interests with dismay. To that end, a number of facts (and assumptions) are important.
Gather important assumptions and “factual material” from the news (factors, events, key forces)
- The religious opposition of Iranian clerics to Israel and the West is a “sine qua non” for maintaining power, it may even be their reason for existence. (factor, assumption)
- If Iran has an atomic bomb, it is a disaster for the Sunni states and their sense of security and possibly an economic disincentive through demand for more military investment. (key force)
- If Iran has a nuke this is an even bigger problem for Israel and the “West” including the USA. (key force)
- Israel is not a NATO country but has strong ties with NATO and special ties with the USA. (factor)
- In 2024, after previous fighting with Iranian-backed groups, Israel responded with an airstrike on buildings of the Iranian embassy in the Syrian capital Damascus, killing senior Iranian officials. This attack triggered a diplomatic, geopolitical and military crisis. (event)
- Israel physically attacked Iran without first being physically attacked by Iran. (event)
- USA physically attacked Iran, without first being physically attacked by Iran. (event)
- Muslim countries openly close ranks, call for resistance to Israel, but do nothing. Perhaps Israel and the USA played into their hands. As Muslims, of course, they can never confirm this. (event and factor)
- Some time ago, after Israel’s attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities, Russia contacted the USA. (event, perhaps a key force)
- About 50 years ago, the USA passed a law restricting the president’s power to wage war. (The War Powers Act) (factor, event)
- Although Iran has economic and other ties, including defense cooperation, with Russia and China, there are no public or confirmed agreements on military assistance by Russia and China in case of external attack.(factor)
- Iran is one of the most important partners for China and Russia in the BRICS story because of its natural resources oil, gas and strategic location. (factor)
- Iran developed tremendously scientifically over the last 40 (?) years, resulting in surprisingly effective weapons systems. (key factor)
- The Houthis recently sunk a number of ships because of the organization’s ties to Israel (event).
Future scenarios and uncertainties.
To explore Iran’s options to respond, it is useful to create hypotheses using the “Quadrant Hypothesis Generation” method of analysis, a way of examining possible future scenarios.
What is not known in the subject’s situation is how Iran is going to (re)act at any point in time, and what their impact in doing so is, how strongly armed they are, what political-military collaborations are in place, and with what depth of detail these are worked out.
The two uncertainties I would therefore like to contrast here are:
- What range of options for response does Iran (and its allies) have?
- What impact would this have on Israel and the USA (and their allies)?
We should approach these quadrants with a systematic question, “what are the extreme states in each of these quadrants?”. Since a quasi-continuum of responses is possible in each of the two dimensions herein, it is opportune to possibly apply sub-scenarios in some of the quadrants. (Thus, there are multiple possibilities in each quadrant).
Note
To keep the exercise simple, I describe each scenario here only political/military aspects. Without attempting to be exhaustive. Strictu sensu, each scenario is amenable to elaboration according to several aspects of STEMPELDS (Social, Technical, Economical, Military, Political, Environmental, Legal, Demographical, Societal) (not necessarily all of them).
Negotiate
Iran undertakes no further revenge actions against USA and Israel and cannot invoke defense agreements with Russia and China of mutual assistance in case of external attack. All sides put an end to physical violence; there will be no physical reprisals.
The parties involved engage in negotiations under the supervision of the United Nations.
U/dystopia
Nuclear radiation near the destroyed nuclear sites is causing health problems for local residents. In time, radiation illnesses may break out in those who get too close to the site. Also, other health problems occur, such as fear of disease. All this provides political pressure on Iran’s leaders.
Hacker collectives are taking it upon themselves to launch cyber attacks against Israel and the West, as revenge for the damage done. Such hacker collectives can be either non-state actors (NSA) or state actors, or Iranian, Russian or Chinese-backed NSA. They focus their attacks on economic, military and societal critical infrastructure and essential services of the West and Israel.
Russia and China are seen by Iran as “allies” who abandon them because they refuse to participate in a physical war against Israel and the West. They may lose credibility with (parts of) their own populations.
Russia prioritizes focus on its war in Ukraine and actively chooses not to open a second front. It informs the USA of this, intending not to be dragged into a larger war.
Who is lucky?
Iran openly does not undertake physical warfare initiatives against Israel and the West, but enables third parties to undertake physical (military and terror) actions. It massively supplies Hamas and the Houthis or other terror movements or terrorists (terror cells, lone wolves or home grown terrorists) with weapons, training, factual materials and targets. This can range from simple firearms to more complex weapons systems. For example, they may include manually launched portable missile systems or small drones with camera function that are easy to operate.
Targets can range from crowds, political figures, military senior officers, to critical infrastructures and essential services. The purpose in doing so can range from spreading fear to perpetrating hybrid attacks to destabilize countries and provoke popular reactions. Iran’s intent may be to target the West by stifling his seafaring. Terrorist actions can be committed directly or indirectly against drinking water companies, energy suppliers, chemical companies, petrochemical companies and SEVESO companies, food and beverage producing companies, schools, transportation companies, road infrastructure, defense-related companies, ICT organizations, …
Iran is intensifying its spying efforts on the West, the USA and Israel. In doing so, it uses locals to gather information, for a financial fee. Politicians are bribed to adopt and defend pro-Iranian political positions.
WWIII ?
Scenario 1) The current negotiations end badly and the conflict resumes. Iran can put its focus on Israel and not the USA so as not to enter into a two front war that it cannot handle. The bunkers are opened and a missile and drone war is launched. Iran risks a pyrrhic victory against Israel by doing so. It weakens itself militarily to the point of not having enough missiles left against a new future aggressor.
Scenario 2) Iran carries out its threat of punishing the USA for its attack on the nuclear sites following the Israeli attack. They bomb American military positions in their vicinity. Also, they are sending missiles at the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant. The latter in the context of an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth. The USA is attacking Iran with all its might with the help of Israel. The USA calls for NATO to be deployed under Article 5 because it is being attacked after failed peace talks. NATO commits to get involved in the war. Iran launches missiles and drones against the West, including the EU. NATO’s defense systems suffer a DOS because of too many missiles under attack.
Politics in the West is coming under pressure and trying to engage the population against Iran. The population in the EU and its political parties are polarizing. Iran in each of these two sub scenarios makes attempts to engage Russia or China in the war. Initially, this does not happen. Iran undertakes physical and cyber attacks, disinformation and misinformation against U.S. military installations to create fake attacks from China or Russia to engage them in the war.