National Risk Analysis 2014 – Norwegian Directorate for Civil Protection

Drawn up by: DSB – Norwegian Directorate for Civil Protection

This national risk assessment dates from 2014 but is still topical.

Anyone who takes the trouble to go through the work from A to Z will receive a fantastic reward for it:

–    The work has a large number of ‘cases’ of scenarios of what comes down to society (from Norway, but many are more universally), and therefore also to the organizations in that society.
It is a good example of qualitative risk analysis elaborated in detail
The uncertainty (uncertainty) on the qualitative classification of probability (here: likelihood) and impact (here: consequences) is also taken into account on the basis of qualitative arguments.
At the same time, each case provides an example of a qualitative sensitivity analysis in the uncertainty analysis.

The cases are structured according to three classes: Natural phenomena, Major accidents and Malicious acts. In the end there follows an “overall risk analysis” in which the cases are summarized and in which a reasoning is worked out that elaborates on a statement by Einstein and one from Abraham Lincoln.

“Imagination is more important than knowledge. For knowledge is limited, whereas imagination embraces the entire world. “- Albert Einstein.

This is illustrated by the first telegraph line that was opened in Norway in 1855: do you think of a risk analysis of the dangers of a solar eruption with particles that seriously disturb its functioning, if you know that this phenomenon was only discovered in 1859?

So: “imagine the future”. How can we prepare for a future that we still do not know what it will look like? For this the statement of Abraham Lincoln applies:

“The best way to predict your future is to create it.”

Therefore, when reading the cases, pay attention to the idea of ​​what this case will look like in the year 2030, 2040 or 2050.