Foresight

Author: Manu Steens In this article I write my own opinion, not that of any organization. It is by no means the intention to present dealing with the pandemic as a simple matter. But there are some simple principles that strike me. Contents"Higher-lower" - a game on televisionThree indicatorsLessons for the futureDo something with the third indicator ! "Higher-lower" - a game on television In the past, “higher-lower” was a game on television. Never before had I thought that these two words could be so important in assessing the need for action in a pandemic. Currently, the federal government makes use of the services of specialists: virologists, biostatisticians , epidemiologists, etc. They can be used at any time to draw up difficult mathematical models to estimate the pandemic and to distil difficult indicators of the evolution from them. How could it have been assumed with higher-lower at the beginning of September how it would evolve at the end of September and the weeks after ? (The next few months remain to be seen, but our experience with the first wave tells us that this wave is not over yet, and it is going to be difficult.) Three indicators Using three qualitative, easy to understand indicators as follows: What was the situation with the number of infections in Belgium at the beginning of September with regard to the number of infections at the very beginning of the first wave? Higher! Much higher ! And what about the number of super spreaders? Also much higher in September. What was the spread of the disease in the country with regard to the early onset of the first wave in early 2020? Also much higher. How did people behave in relieving the measures in terms of elation and carelessness? - higher ! And that is normal. If you doubt that, you should see a bunch of cows roaming about after a long winter, and then released into the pasture. People who have been a long time in lock-down have the same desire to be free again. And that behavior became part of the new normal. Goodbye caution. Goodbye discipline. Is the result surprising, then, that there will be a more severe wave after September, which can whip higher than the first wave? Lessons for the future And that's not even the question I want to talk about. What I want to talk about are lessons for the near future. Is it inconceivable that there will be another wave after this? And what should we do about it? We will not be able to do much about the first two indicators. As for the first, we are not even going to know if all the sick have been healed, and that no one is a carrier anymore. As for the second, mutatis mutandis: we cannot say much about the spread if we are not 100% sure who is still a carrier and who is not. Do something with the third indicator ! That is why it is important to do something with the third indicator. This is currently done by reducing the transmissibility of the virus as much as possible. In this way they try to prevent the spread in order not to overload the hospital system, if possible until there is a vaccine, and preferably forever. But that requires discipline, both during the approach to reverse the new wave and the period afterwards to prevent another wave. So the discipline must be higher ! And that regardless of the precise measures in a ministerial order, or in the protocols, or in the local measures. The search for exceptions, loopholes, back doors,… to do their thing must therefore be lower !